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Re: [SLUG] Linux on the desktop predictions


Howard of Albury:

> One supplier to my client who couldn't get his u-beaut Excel spreadsheet
> pricelist to run the macros described the system as user-unfriendly until
> I pointed out to him that he had a cheek assuming that he would be allowed
> to run macros on someone elses network anyway, Windows or not, and that as
> far as my client is concerned it is more important to my client that his
> network be corporate friendly and easily maintained remotely, than that it
> allows him to be lazy or lets the user bog up the desktop with crud.  I

Gee Howard, folks are pretty forthright down your way :)

> My next campaign is with my local rural council who have been given a
> feral govt grant to set up Internet cafes in 5 of the small villages
> around Albury including my own village.  I am going to do my damnedest to
> keep the Borg out of the place.

I remember seeing an article in the Linux Journal about an Internet
Cafe and Linux. Can't remember the issue.

Danny:

> > I'm really just curious as to what others think the future holds for
> > Linux -- something in between the arguments about current deployments
> > and the long-term "we will take over the world/no we won't" debates.

But you'd have a hard time getting a reasonable prediction
using the current trends of any time period in the computer industry.

Even looking at a seemingly exponential growth rate usually turns out
to look more like a sine wave.

My predictions:

* the influence of Unix / Posix / Linux ideas will be very
pervasive, but largely unacknowledged. Just as the Internet
today, as portrayed by the mass media, has nothing to do with
a technical revolution (TCP/IP) and the self sacrifice of some
great people, we will only see stories about the business
opportunities offered by, say, Debian Linux.

* maybe there are two barriers to more ubiqutous computer use: price
and convenience. Convenience includes complexity.

I think we are in a bit of spiral where complexity is trying
to be solved with more resource hungry software (driving up
price). 

Just some thoughts.
Jamie